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Accurate predictions of net ecosystem productivity (NEPc) of forest ecosystems are essential for climate change decisions and requirements in the context of national forest growth and greenhouse gas inventories. However, drivers and underlying mechanisms determining NEPc (e.g., climate and nutrients) are not entirely understood yet, particularly when considering the influence of past periods. Here
Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30 % of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framewor
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern H
Global warming can substantially affect the export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat-permafrost to aquatic systems. The direct degradability of such peat-derived DOC, however, is poorly constrained because previous permafrost thaw studies have mainly addressed mineral soil catchments or DOC pools that have already been processed in surface waters. We incubated peat cores from a palsa mir
The TIMESAT software package has been developed to enable monitoring of dynamic land surface processes using remotely sensed data. The monitoring capability is based on processing of time-series for each image pixel using either of three smoothing methods included in TIMESAT: asymmetric Gaussian fits, doublelogistic fits, and Savitzky-Golay filtering. The methods have different properties and are
Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and proce
Global vegetation models and terrestrial carbon cycle models are widely used for projecting the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Ensembles of such models show a large spread in carbon balance predictions, ranging from a large uptake to a release of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere, constituting a large uncertainty in the associated feedback to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations under glob
Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultu
Increasing water deficits and severe droughts are expected to alter the dynamics of vegetation post-disturbance recovery by decreasing new recruitment and limiting growth in semi-arid Mediterranean ecosystems in future. However, which vegetation metrics will be shifted and how they respond over time are not clear, and the experimental evidence is still limited. Here we assessed the impacts of a lo
Current land use and climate change pose a threat to the continued provision of ecosystem services expected from terrestrial land cover. Studies on past land-cover responses to such changes provide valuable information for future decisions. The hemiboreal zone, situated between temperate and boreal biomes, is a natural sensitivity hotspot for land cover change: it contains a continuous distributio
Coastal environments, in particular heavily populated semi-enclosed marginal seas and coasts like the Baltic Sea region, are strongly affected by human activities. A multitude of human impacts, including climate change, affect the different compartments of the environment, and these effects interact with each other. As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and
Cold region ecosystems store vast amounts of soil organic carbon (C), which upon warming and decomposition can affect the C balance and potentially change these ecosystems from C sinks to carbon dioxide (CO2) sources. We quantified the decadal year-round CO2 flux from an alpine steppe-ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau using eddy covariance and automatic chamber approaches during a period of signifi
Water demand growth coupled with its high spatial-temporal mismatch of water resources will lead to an increasing water scarcity worldwide. In order to investigate a robust long-term water stress for ecosystems and regions across China, the improved maximum entropy production (MEP) method was utilized to obtain a reliable evapotranspiration (ET) product during 1982–2015. Afterwards four water stre
Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions may be vulnerable to climatic warming, but global estimates of SOC distribution and magnitude in permafrost regions still have large uncertainties. Based on multiple high-resolution environmental variables and a compiled soil sample dataset (>3000 soil profiles), we used machine-learning methods to
Future Arctic tundra primary productivity and vegetation community composition will partly be determined by nitrogen (N) availability in a warmer climate. N mineralization rates are predicted to increase in both winter and summer, but because N demand and –mobility varies across seasons, the fate of mineralized N remains uncertain. N mineralized in winter is released in a “pulse” upon snowmelt and
Warmer or cooler spring in northern high latitudes will, for the most part, directly impact gross primary productivity (GPP) of ecosystems, but also carry consequences for the upcoming seasonal GPP. Spatiotemporal patterns of these legacy effects are still largely unknown but important for improving our understanding of how plant phenology is associated with vegetation dynamics. In this study, imp
Winter warming events (WWE) are abrupt and short-lasting (hours-to-days) events of extraordinarily warm weather occurring during wintertime, sometimes accompanied by rainfall (rain on snow events; ROS). Through direct heat transfer and changes in the snowpack properties, these events cause changes in the below-ground thermal regime that, in turn, controls a suite of ecosystem processes ranging fro
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) northern boundary is a critical indicator of EASM variations. Movement of the boundary is modulated by both the EASM and the mid-latitude westerlies. Here, we use the Earth system model EC-Earth to quantify the contribution of orbital forcing and vegetation feedbacks in modulating the movement of EASM northern boundary. The results show that the simulated EASM
Forest composition characteristic of the Mid-Holocene has survived on Hallands Väderö, an island nature reserve off the south west coast of Sweden. Current veteran Tilia and Quercus trees contribute to a remarkably rich biodiversity of fungi, bryophytes, lichens and insects. Understanding which potential factors influence Holocene vegetation dynamics can support efforts to protect biodiversity, bu
The dynamics of blue and green water partitioning under vegetation and climate change, as well as their different interactions during wet and dry periods, are poorly understood in the literature. We analyzed the impact of vegetation changes on blue water generation in a central Spanish Pyrenees basin undergoing intense afforestation. We found that vegetation change is a key driver of large decreas
