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Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops
Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owin
Earth observation-based estimates of global gross primary production (GPP) are essential for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic change and other anthropogenic forcing. In this study, we attempt an ecosystem-level physiological approach of estimating GPP using an asymptotic light response function (LRF) between GPP and incoming photosynthetically active radiation (P
Land-use change affects both the quality and quantity of soil organic carbon (SOC) and leads to changes in ecosystem functions such as productivity and environmental regulation. Future changes in SOC are, however, highly uncertain owing to its heterogeneity and complexity. In this study, we analyzed the outputs of simulations of SOC stock by Earth system models (ESMs), most of which are participan
Under the Paris Agreement (PA), progress of emission reduction efforts is tracked on the basis of regular updates to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, referred to as bottom-up estimates. However, only top-down atmospheric measurements can provide observation-based evidence of emission trends. Today, there is no internationally agreed, operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic GHG emis
We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show th
Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models
Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a
The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the global climate and the variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle on interannual timescales. Two different expressions of El Niño have recently been identified: (i) central Pacific (CP) and (ii) eastern Pacific (EP). Both types of El Niño are characterised by above-average sea surface temperature anomalies at the respective locations. Studi
Plant phenology plays a fundamental role in land atmosphere interactions, and its variability and variations are an indicator of climate and environmental changes. For this reason, current land surface models include phenology parameterizations and related biophysical and biogeochemical processes. In this work, the climatology of the beginning and end of the growing season, simulated by the land c
The Arctic has experienced a warming rate higher than the global mean in the past decades, but previous studies show that there are large uncertainties associated with future Arctic temperature projections. In this study, near-surface mean temperatures in the Arctic are analyzed from 22 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Compared with the ERA5 rea
Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets". A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2
Although natural terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered ∼25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the long-term sustainability of this key ecosystem service is under question. Forests have traditionally been viewed as robust carbon (C) sinks; however, extreme heat-waves, drought and wildfire have increased tree mortality, particularly in widespread semi-arid regions, which account for ∼41% of Earth's
The carbon cycle of the terrestrial biosphere plays a vital role in controlling the global carbon balance and, consequently, climate change. Reliably modeled CO2 fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere are necessary in projections of policy strategies aiming at constraining carbon emissions and of future climate change. In this study, SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) L3
We estimated the CH4 budget in Finland for 2004–2014 using the CTE-CH4 data assimilation system with an extended atmospheric CH4 observation network of seven sites from Finland to surrounding regions (Hyytiälä, Kjølnes, Kumpula, Pallas, Puijo, Sodankylä, and Utö). The estimated average annual total emission for Finland is 0.6 ± 0.5 Tg CH4 yr−1. Sensitivity experiments show that the posterior biosp
This paper presents the assimilation of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) into a terrestrial biosphere model to estimate the gross uptake of carbon through photosynthesis (GPP). We use the BETHY-SCOPE model to simulate both GPP and SIF using a process-based formulation, going beyond a simple linear scaling between the two. We then use satellite SIF data from the Orbiting Carbon Observat
Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO2) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth1–5, thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration6. Although evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO2 fertilization effect on biomass growth3–5, it is unclear whether mature fores
Total Marrow Irradiation (TMI) with Helical Tomotherapy is a radiotherapy treatment technique that targets bone marrow and sanctuary sites prior to stem cell or bone marrow transplantation (SCT/BMT). TMI is a complex procedure that involves several critical steps that all need to be carefully addressed for a successful implementation, such as dose homogeneity in field junctions, choice of target m
