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Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced
The large spatial variability in Arctic tundra complicates the representative assessment of CO2 budgets. Accurate measurements of these heterogeneous landscapes are, however, essential to understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We surveyed a polygonal tundra lowland on Svalbard with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that mapped ice-wedge morphology to complement eddy covariance (EC) fl
Monitoring is science keeping our thumb on the pulse of the environment to detect any changes of concern for societies. Basic science is the question-driven search for fundamental processes and mechanisms. Given the firm root of monitoring in human interests and needs, basic sciences have often been regarded as scientifically "purer"-particularly within university-based research communities. We ar
Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation mo
Operationalizing a Global Carbon Observing and Analysis System (www.geocarbon.net) would provide a sound basis for monitoring actual carbon fluxes and thus getting quantities right when pricing carbon - be it in a cap-and-trade scheme or under a tax regime. However, such monitoring systems are expensive and-especially in times of economic weakness-budgets for science and environmental policy are u
The Amazon rainforest is disproportionately important for global carbon storage and biodiversity. The system couples the atmosphere and land, with moist forest that depends on convection to sustain gross primary productivity and growth. Earth system models that estimate future climate and vegetation show little agreement in Amazon simulations. Here we show that biases in internally generated clima
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed
Most northern peatlands developed during the Holocene, sequestering large amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. However, recent syntheses have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of peatland carbon accumulation. Assessments of the long-Term carbon accumulation rate and possible warming-driven changes in these accumulation rates can therefore benefit from process-based modelling studie
Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance prod
An improvement in our process-based understanding of carbon (C) exchange in the Arctic and its climate sensitivity is critically needed for understanding the response of tundra ecosystems to a changing climate. In this context, we analysed the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in West Greenland tundra (64°N) across eight snow-free periods in 8 consecutive years, and characterized the key process
Methane (CH4) emissions from arctic tundra typically follow relations with soil temperature and water table depth, but these process-based descriptions can be difficult to apply to areas where no measurements exist. We formulated a description of the broader temporal flux pattern in the growing season based on two distinct CH4 source components from slow and fast-turnover carbon. We used automatic
The current downturn of the arctic cryosphere, such as the strong loss of sea ice, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and permafrost thaw, affects the marine and terrestrial carbon cycles in numerous interconnected ways. Nonetheless, processes in the ocean and on land have been too often considered in isolation while it has become increasingly clear that the two environments are strongly connecte
The closed chamber technique is widely used to measure the exchange of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from terrestrial ecosystems. There is, however, large uncertainty about which model should be used to calculate the gas flux from the measured gas concentrations. Due to experimental uncertainties the simple linear regression model (first-order polynomial) is often applied, even though the
Terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed roughly 30 % of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the past decades, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling and experimental and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under global change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framewor
Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern H
Global warming can substantially affect the export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat-permafrost to aquatic systems. The direct degradability of such peat-derived DOC, however, is poorly constrained because previous permafrost thaw studies have mainly addressed mineral soil catchments or DOC pools that have already been processed in surface waters. We incubated peat cores from a palsa mir
The TIMESAT software package has been developed to enable monitoring of dynamic land surface processes using remotely sensed data. The monitoring capability is based on processing of time-series for each image pixel using either of three smoothing methods included in TIMESAT: asymmetric Gaussian fits, doublelogistic fits, and Savitzky-Golay filtering. The methods have different properties and are
Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and proce
Global vegetation models and terrestrial carbon cycle models are widely used for projecting the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Ensembles of such models show a large spread in carbon balance predictions, ranging from a large uptake to a release of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere, constituting a large uncertainty in the associated feedback to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations under glob
Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultu
