Filetype
We apply causal loop diagrams (CLD) to picture how complex societal scenarios can be understood in terms of interdependent drivers and mechanisms between actors from the public and private sectors respectively. And we show how un-sustainable scenarios can be understood in terms of insufficient balancing feed-back in the system. We apply the methodology to picture such imbalances as funda- mental d
We review the recent progress in dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches for west African precipitation and perform a regional climate model (RCM) intercomparison using the novel multi-model RCM data set from the Ensembles-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) and African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) projects. Present RCMs have distinct systematic
Political institutions are keen to use the best available scientific knowledge in decision-making. For environmental policy, relevant scientific evidence can be complex and extensive, so expert judgment is frequently relied upon, without clear links to the evidence itself. We propose a new transparent process for incorporating research evidence into policy decisions, involving independent synopsis
Background: Soils contain the largest stock of organic carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems and changes in soil C stocks may significantly affect atmospheric CO2. A significant part of soil C is present in cultivated soils that occupy about 35 % of the global land surface. Agricultural intensification has led to practices that may decrease soil organic carbon (SOC), and agricultural management has
Agricultural intensification has been vital for meeting global food demand but has caused environmental degradation. This has disrupted the ability of soil to provide vital ecosystem services. Organic farming is often thought to conserve and utilise soil ecosystem services, and thus be a more sustainable method of food production than conventional farming. However, evidence for this is equivocal,
Contributions of changes in soil moisture to the projected climate change in the tropics at the end of the twenty first century are quantified using the simulations from five different global climate models, which contributed to the GLACE–CMIP5 experiment. “GLACE” refers to the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment and “CMIP5” to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. T
The oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) gives a range of products, from semi-volatile to extremely low-volatility compounds. To treat the interaction of these secondary organic vapours with the particle phase, global aerosol microphysics models generally use either a thermodynamic partitioning approach (assuming instant equilibrium between semi-volatile oxidation products and
Context Agricultural transformation and increased land use intensity often lead to simplified landscapes and biodiversity loss. For animals, one possible mechanism underpinning biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes is the disruption of movements. The disruption of movements may explain, for example, why butterfly communities in agricultural landscapes are often dominated by generalist speci
Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; est
Global land-use change has drastic consequences for biodiversity leading to losses of ecological functioning, ecosystem services and human well-being. While species dependent on undisturbed natural habitat are most affected by conversion to agriculture, even populations of disturbance-tolerant species can be endangered in landscapes dominated by high-input mono-cultural cropping systems. This has
Regional climate modeling is a dynamical downscaling technique applied to the results of global climate models (GCMs) in order to acquire more information on climate simulations and climate change projections. GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) have undergone considerable development over the past few decades, and both have increased in resolution. The higher-resolution edge of RCMs compared
In a north European context, identifying invasive species is far from trivial because the vegetation has been influenced by human activities for thousands of years. New species have immigrated continuously since the end of the last glaciation, both spontaneously and through direct or indirect help by man. Still, newly immigrated species may be problematic in a nature conservation context and may h
Pollination improves the yield of most crop species and contributes to one-third of global crop production, but comprehensive benefits including crop quality are still unknown. Hence, pollination is underestimated by international policies, which is particularly alarming in times of agricultural intensification and diminishing pollination services. In this study, exclusion experiments with strawbe
Biological invasion by non-native tree species can transform landscapes, and as a consequence, has received growing attention from researchers and managers alike. This problem is driven primarily by the naturalisation and invasion of tree species escaping from cultivation or forestry plantations. Furthermore, these invasions can be strongly influenced by the land-use matrix of the surrounding regi
Climate warming will increase the drought exposure of many forests world-wide. It is not well understood how trees adapt their hydraulic architecture to a long-term decrease in water availability. We examined 23 traits characterizing the hydraulic architecture and growth rate of branches and the dependent foliage of mature European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees along a precipitation gradient (855-
A large ensemble of regional climate model projections was investigated regarding if and when they show an emergence of significant climate change signals in seasonal temperature and precipitation within Europe. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as simulated in the projections, was investigated. In most parts of Europe, the projections indicate robust emergence of temperature
Avian ecosystem services such as the suppression of pests are considered to be of high ecological and economic importance in a range of ecosystems, especially in tropical agroforestry. However, how bird predation success is related to the diversity and composition of the bird community, as well as local and landscape factors, is poorly understood. We quantified arthropod predation in relation to t
Phenological shifts belong to the most commonly observed biological responses to recent climate change. It is, however, often unclear how these shifts are linked to demography and competitive interactions. We develop an eco-evolutionary model to study adaptation of timing of reproduction in organisms with social dominance hierarchies. We focus on residential birds with winter flocks, where success
