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Developing accurate large-scale drought prediction models is challenging due to the complex temporal and spatial correlation patterns that govern drought dynamics, as well as the compounding effects of anthropogenic activities and global climate change. Although recent advances in deep learning have yielded effective drought prediction models, many struggle to fully capture the heterogeneous spati
Climate change and land-use change represent a dual threat to terrestrial ecosystem functioning. In the tropics, forest conversion to agriculture is occurring alongside warming and more pronounced periods of drought. Rainfall after drought induces enormous dynamics in microbial growth (potential soil carbon storage) and respiration (determining carbon loss), affecting the ecosystem carbon budget.
Warmer or cooler spring in northern high latitudes will, for the most part, directly impact gross primary productivity (GPP) of ecosystems, but also carry consequences for the upcoming seasonal GPP. Spatiotemporal patterns of these legacy effects are still largely unknown but important for improving our understanding of how plant phenology is associated with vegetation dynamics. In this study, imp
Winter warming events (WWE) are abrupt and short-lasting (hours-to-days) events of extraordinarily warm weather occurring during wintertime, sometimes accompanied by rainfall (rain on snow events; ROS). Through direct heat transfer and changes in the snowpack properties, these events cause changes in the below-ground thermal regime that, in turn, controls a suite of ecosystem processes ranging fro
An improved understanding of past interactions between terrestrial vegetation and various forcings, such as climate change, human impact, and paleofire, is crucial for assessing impacts of future global change on terrestrial ecosystems. This study seeks to find the key factor or factors that have driven Holocene vegetation change along the East Asian monsoon margin. Several high-resolution pollen
This study focuses on the trends and the causes of variation in actual evapotranspiration (AET) around the warming hiatus over China by a comprehensive analysis applying various temporal–spatial methods. It is observed that the annual AET showed a different trend around 2000 for China as a whole. By employing segmented regression analysis for detecting warming hiatus points, high temporal inconsis
Increased wealth and per capita energy use have transformed lives and shaped societies, but energy poverty remains a global challenge. Previous research has shown positive relationships among metrics of health and happiness and economic indices such as income and gross domestic product and between energy use and human development. To our knowledge, however, no comprehensive assessment has examined
Our study aims to increase the understanding about the impacts of potential drivers of pollen richness by using a pollen-vegetation modelling approach. We used the Sutton-Prentice dispersal model implemented in the HUMPOL software suite to explore the effects of factors commonly associated with pollen richness: vegetation diversity (plant richness and evenness), land-cover characteristics (patch r
Tropical mountain cloud forests (TMCF) harbour a high bryophyte (mosses and liverworts) biomass and diversity. Furthermore, the high air humidity makes these forests well suited for bryophyte-associated nitrogen (N2) fixation by cyanobacteria, providing a potentially important source of N input to the ecosystem. However, few studies have assessed bryophyte-associated N input in these ecosystems, a
Peatlands have acted as net CO2 sinks over millennia, exerting a global climate cooling effect. Rapid warming at northern latitudes, where peatlands are abundant, can disturb their CO2 sink function. Here we show that sensitivity of peatland net CO2 exchange to warming changes in sign and magnitude across seasons, resulting in complex net CO2 sink responses. We use multiannual net CO2 exchange obs
The Black Death (1347–1352 ce) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe’s population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic’s causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources avai
Wood formation determines major long-term carbon (C) accumulation in trees and therefore provides a crucial ecosystem service in mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, we lack understanding of how species with contrasting wood anatomical types differ with respect to phenology and environmental controls on wood formation. In this study, we investigated the seasonality and rates of radial growth a
Permafrost degradation poses serious threats to both natural and human systems through its influence on ecological–hydrological processes, infrastructure stability, and the climate system. The Arctic and the Third Pole (Tibetan Plateau, TP hereafter) are the two northern regions on Earth with the most extensive permafrost areas. However, there is a lack of systematic comparisons of permafrost char
Sedimentary charcoal records are widely used to reconstruct regional changes in fire regimes through time in the geological past. Existing global compilations are not geographically comprehensive and do not provide consistent metadata for all sites. Furthermore, the age models provided for these records are not harmonised and many are based on older calibrations of the radiocarbon ages. These issu
Insect herbivory is one of the most important ecological processes affecting plant–soil feedbacks and overall forest ecosystem health. In this study, we assess how elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) impacts (i) leaf level insect herbivory and (ii) the stand-level herbivore-mediated transfer of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) from the canopy to the ground in a natural mature oak temperate forest community
The prediction of species geographic redistribution under climate change (i.e. range shifts) has been addressed by both experimental and modelling approaches and can be used to inform efficient policy measures on the functioning and services of future ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are considered state-of-the art tools to understand and quantify the spatio-temporal dynamics o
Whether sources or sinks control wood growth remains debated with a paucity of evidence from mature trees in natural settings. Here, we altered carbon supply rate in stems of mature red maples (Acer rubrum) within the growing season by restricting phloem transport using stem chilling; thereby increasing carbon supply above and decreasing carbon supply below the restrictions, respectively. Chilling
Earth's forests harbor extensive biodiversity and are currently a major carbon sink. Forest conservation and restoration can help mitigate climate change; however, climate change could fundamentally imperil forests in many regions and undermine their ability to provide such mitigation. The extent of climate risks facing forests has not been synthesized globally nor have different approaches to qua
Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about climate change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data and understanding to identify whether these observations represent a global trend toward increasing tree mortality. Here, we document events of sudden and unexpected elevated tree mortality follow
Soil is the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon and is central for climate change mitigation and carbon-climate feedbacks. Chemical and physical associations of soil carbon with minerals play a critical role in carbon storage, but the amount and global capacity for storage in this form remain unquantified. Here, we produce spatially-resolved global estimates of mineral-associated organ
