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The Arctic has experienced a warming rate higher than the global mean in the past decades, but previous studies show that there are large uncertainties associated with future Arctic temperature projections. In this study, near-surface mean temperatures in the Arctic are analyzed from 22 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Compared with the ERA5 rea
Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets". A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2
Land surface models are used to provide global estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes after past and future change land use change (LUC), in particular re-/deforestation. To evaluate how well the models capture decadal-scale changes in SOC after LUC, we provide the first consistent comparison of simulated time series of LUC by six land models all of which participated in the coupled model
Fire regimes across the world are expected to be altered by continuing variations in socio-economic conditions and climate. Current global fire-vegetation models are able to represent the present-day fire activity, but it is unclear how well they can simulate past or future scenarios. Here we use sedimentary charcoal-based biomass burning reconstructions to evaluate fire probability and total carb
Africa is largely influenced by fires, which play an important ecological role influencing the distribution and structure of grassland, savanna and forest biomes. Here vegetation strongly interacts with climate and other environmental factors, such as herbivory and humans. Fire-enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) display high uncertainty in predicting the distribution of current tropi
Aim: Double-blind placebo-controlled intervention using glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD)-alum, vitamin D and Ibuprofen in recent onset Type I diabetes (T1D). Methods: 64 patients (T1D since <4 months, age 10-17.99, fasting sC-peptide ≥0.12 nmol/l, GADA-positive) were randomized into Day(D) 1-90 400 mg/day Ibuprofen, D1-450 vitamin D 2000 IU/day, D15, 45 sc. 20 μg GAD-alum; as A but placebo instea
The 2018 drought was one of the worst European droughts of the twenty-first century in terms of its severity, extent and duration. The effects of the drought could be seen in a reduction in harvest yields in parts of Europe, as well as an unprecedented browning of vegetation in summer. Here, we quantify the effect of the drought on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using five independent regional atmos
The terrestrial carbon cycle is an important component of the global carbon budget due to its large gross exchangefluxes with the atmosphere and their sensitivity to climate change. Terrestrial biosphere models showlarge uncertainties in simulating carbon fluxes, which impact global carbon budget assessments. The land surfacecarbon cycle is tightly controlled by soil moisture through plant physiol
The nitrogen cycle and its effect on carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere is a recent progression in earth system models. As with any new component of a model, it is important to understand the behaviour, strengths, and limitations of the various process representations. Here we assess and compare five land surface models with nitrogen cycles that are used as the terrestrial components of so
Although vegetation phenology thresholds have been developed for a wide range of mapping applications, their use for assessing the distribution of natural bamboo and the related carbon stocks is still limited, especially in Southeast Asia. Here, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to collect time-series of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 images and employed a phenology-based t
Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed w
Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops
Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owin
Earth observation-based estimates of global gross primary production (GPP) are essential for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic change and other anthropogenic forcing. In this study, we attempt an ecosystem-level physiological approach of estimating GPP using an asymptotic light response function (LRF) between GPP and incoming photosynthetically active radiation (P
Land-use change affects both the quality and quantity of soil organic carbon (SOC) and leads to changes in ecosystem functions such as productivity and environmental regulation. Future changes in SOC are, however, highly uncertain owing to its heterogeneity and complexity. In this study, we analyzed the outputs of simulations of SOC stock by Earth system models (ESMs), most of which are participan
Under the Paris Agreement (PA), progress of emission reduction efforts is tracked on the basis of regular updates to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, referred to as bottom-up estimates. However, only top-down atmospheric measurements can provide observation-based evidence of emission trends. Today, there is no internationally agreed, operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic GHG emis
We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show th
Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models
Aims: This analysis aimed to evaluate the incidence and predictors of the need for permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation following implantation of the repositionable and fully retrievable LOTUS Aortic Valve Replacement System. Methods and results: The prospective, single-arm, multicentre REPRISE II study with extended cohort enrolled 250 symptomatic, high surgical risk patients with severe aortic
Peatlands are important carbon reserves in terrestrial ecosystems. The microtopography of a peatland area has a strong influence on its carbon balance, determining carbon fluxes at a range of spatial scales. These patterned surfaces are very sensitive to changing climatic conditions. There are open research questions concerning the stability, behaviour and transformation of these microstructures,
