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The study has developed an interactive mission benefit analysis (MBA) tool that allows instantaneous evaluation of a range of potential mission designs. The designs are evaluated in terms of their constraint on carbon and water fluxes through calibration of a terrestrial bisphere model. The constraint is quantified by methematically rigorous uncertainty propagation in CCDAS. Applying the MBA tool,
Permafrost peatlands are biogeochemical hot spots in the Arctic as they store vast amounts of carbon. Permafrost thaw could release part of these long-term immobile carbon stocks as the greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere, but how much, at which time-span and as which gaseous carbon species is still highly uncertain. Here we assess the effect of
Northern regions have received considerable attention not only because the effects of climate change are amplified at high latitudes but also because this region holds vast amounts of carbon (C) stored in permafrost. These carbon stocks are vulnerable to warming temperatures and increased permafrost thaw and the breakdown and release of soil C in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4).
There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the change
The decomposition of large stocks of soil organic carbon in thawing permafrost might depend on more than climate change-induced temperature increases: indirect effects of thawing via altered bacterial community structure (BCS) or rooting patterns are largely unexplored. We used a 10-year in situ permafrost thaw experiment and aerobic incubations to investigate alterations in BCS and potential resp
The annual peak growth of vegetation is critical in characterizing the capacity of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and shaping the seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The recent greening of global lands suggests an increasing trend of terrestrial vegetation growth, but whether or not the peak growth has been globally enhanced still remains unclear. Here, we use two global datasets of
Natural methane emissions are noticeably influenced by warming of cold arctic ecosystems and permafrost. An evaluation specifically of Arctic natural methane emissions in relation to our ability to mitigate anthropogenic methane emissions is needed. Here we use empirical scenarios of increases in natural emissions together with maximum technically feasible reductions in anthropogenic emissions to
There is a significant knowledge gap in the current state of the terrestrial carbon (C) budget. Recent studies have highlighted a poor understanding particularly of C pool transit times and of whether productivity or biomass dominate these biases. The Arctic, accounting for approximately 50% of the global soil organic C stocks, has an important role in the global C cycle. Here, we use the CARbon D
1. Outbreaks of herbivorous insects can have large impacts on regional soil carbon (C) storage and nutrient cycling. In northernmost Europe, population outbreaks of several geometrid moth species regularly cause large-scale defoliation in subarctic birch forests. An improved understanding is required of how leaf C and nutrients are processed after ingestion by herbivores and what this means for th
Global atmospheric methane concentrations have continued to rise in recent years, having already more than doubled since the Industrial Revolution. Further environmental change, especially climate change, in the twenty-first century has the potential to radically alter global methane fluxes. Importantly, changes in temperature, precipitation, and net primary production may induce positive climate
The enhanced vegetation growth by climate warming plays a pivotal role in amplifying the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at northern lands (>50° N) since 1960s. However, the correlation between vegetation growth, temperature and seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 concentration have become elusive with the slowed increasing trend of vegetation growth and weakened temperature control on CO2 upt
Livestock production is important for local food security and as a source of income in sub-Saharan Africa. The human population of the region is expected to double by 2050, and at the same time climate change is predicted to negatively affect grazing resources vital to livestock. Therefore, it is essential to model the potential grazing output of sub-Saharan Africa in both present and future clima
Satellite derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is a common data source for monitoring regional and global ecosystem properties. In dry lands it has contributed to estimation of inter-annual and seasonal vegetation dynamics and phenology. However, due to the spectral properties of NDVI it can be affected by clouds which can introduce missing data in the time series. Remotely sensed
Aim: Climate change impacts forest functioning and services through two inter-related effects. First, it impacts tree growth, with effects, for example, on biomass production. Second, climate change also reshuffles community composition, with further effects on forest functioning. However, the relative importance of these two effects has rarely been studied. Here, we developed a new modelling appr
Understanding about regional versus local changes in vegetation is critical in answering archaeological questions, in particular at a time when humans are assumed to have caused higher disturbances at local scales rather than regional scales; this is the case during the Neolithic. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of Neolithic land use on regional and local vegetation dynamics, plant c
Palaeoecological studies can identify past trends in vegetation communities and processes over long time scales. Pollen, plant macrofossils and charcoalanalyses are used to reconstruct vegetation over the last 6400 years and provide information about former human impact and disturbance regimesin Färnebofjärden National Park, Central Sweden. Three specific conservation planning topics were addresse
The effect of ice sheet topography on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the Last Glacial Maximum is studied using CCSM3 in a hierarchy of model configurations. It is found that receding ice sheets result in a weakened EASM, with the reduced ice sheet thickness playing a major role. The lower ice sheet topography weakens the EASM through shifting the position of the midlatitude jet, and t
Arctic tundra is a globally important store for carbon (C). However, there is a lack of reference sites characterising C exchange dynamics across annual cycles. Based on the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) programme, here we present 9-11 years of flux and ecosystem data across the period 2008-2018 from two wetland sites in Greenland: Zackenberg (74°N) and Kobbefjord (64°N). The Zackenberg fen
Rising temperatures can influence ecosystem processes both directly and indirectly, through effects on plant species and communities. An improved understanding of direct versus indirect effects of warming on ecosystem processes is needed for robust predictions of the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics. To explore potential direct and indirect effects of warming
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most significant climate variability signals. Studying the changes in ENSO-induced precipitation variability (ENSO precipitation) in the past climate offers a possibility to a better understanding of how they may change under future climate conditions. This study uses simulations performed with the European community Earth-System Model (EC-Eart
